Really liked the framing here @Mike Allison ‘markets price fear’ is the cleanest summary of this year I’ve ever seen. The policy/left tail risk point was solid.
This is such a clean way to visualize how prediction markets get whipsawed by policy uncertainty. That 18% to 70% swing in spring wasn't about fundamentals breaking, it was the market trying to price something that felt uncomfortably binary with tariffs. I remember trading through similar setups where volatility gets bid up not becuase anyone has better information, but because the distribution of outcomes gets wider and everyone's models suddenly need bigger error bars.
Really liked the framing here @Mike Allison ‘markets price fear’ is the cleanest summary of this year I’ve ever seen. The policy/left tail risk point was solid.
Thanks for the shoutout Mariah at @The New Unhinged . I appreciate the comment and you taking the time to read The Sunday Drive.
This is such a clean way to visualize how prediction markets get whipsawed by policy uncertainty. That 18% to 70% swing in spring wasn't about fundamentals breaking, it was the market trying to price something that felt uncomfortably binary with tariffs. I remember trading through similar setups where volatility gets bid up not becuase anyone has better information, but because the distribution of outcomes gets wider and everyone's models suddenly need bigger error bars.