The Sunday Drive - 09/17/2023 Edition [#76]
Musings and Meanderings of a Financial Provocateur
👋🏼 Hello friends,
Greetings from Ellicottville, NY! Let's take it easy and enjoy a leisurely Sunday Drive around the internet.
The Sunday Drive is also published at NewLanternCapital.com.
🎶 Vibin'
It’s Rock and Roll Weekend here in Ellicottville, so to fit the theme of this twenty plus year old annual tradition, I hopped into the Way Back Machine to grab a classic. This week, I’m vibin’ to the 1973 Rick Derringer hit, Rock and Roll, Hoochie Koo. Enjoy.
💭 Quote of the Week
“A correction is nothing more than a Wall Street euphemism for losing a lot of money very rapidly.” – Peter Lynch
📈 Chart of the Week
Early in my investment career, a veteran portfolio manager I worked with once told me, “If the cycle is long enough, it’s secular.”
The Chart of the Week depicts the history of secular bull and bear markets going back to 1920. Let’s stand back and look at the big map of history.
First however, I would point out that given the numerous legislative acts in the 1930s and and early 1940s which created the capital market regulatory environment that largely still exists today, the relevant periods to consider really begin around 1940.
Since that time, we’ve had secular bull markets which lasted roundly 20 years each, and secular bear markets which lasted roughly 10 years each.
What to make of the current secular bull market which has, at least as depicted by the above chart, been underway for approximately 15 years?
If the prior two secular bull/bear periods hold true in the current cycle, then we have perhaps another five years for the secular bull market to run before the next secular bear market comes.
This would coincide, ironically enough, with the 2028 election cycle when virtually all of the fossils who currently hold office in Washington will be gone and a new generation of leadership will make their mark.
Until then, let’s be vigilant and thoughtful, making sure that we earn investment returns that are commensurate with the risks that we take to earn them.
🚙 Interesting Drive-By's
This week we have articles on Retirement, Education, Construction, and Loneliness:
💡 Reframing the Word ‘Retirement’ - from Dave Buck
Retirement can be a time of opportunity, adventure and fulfillment. It can contain work, part-time work, or no work. Retirement is not a linear or flat existence. It contains phases and changes as people age. A typical retirement day for a 65-year-old is often very different than that of an 85-year-old. When you’rehaving an internal struggle, it’s helpful to reframe the word retirement with more appropriate descriptions that match the life you lead today and the life you want to lead tomorrow. [link]
🤔 You Were Made For More - from David Perell
Note: If you have 12 minutes to invest, I think you’ll really enjoy this thought provoking and very well done short film.
🏠 New Apartment Construction: 1.2 million Rental Units Built in the Last 3 Years - from Veronica Grecu
Note: This article highlights the other side of the “homeownership affordability” debate.
Apartment construction in the U.S. is experiencing its best years on record: The pandemic building boom brought 1.2 million apartments to the market in the last three years and 2023 is also shaping up as a new peak year for construction as developers are expected to open 460,860 rentals by the end of December. Notably, the New York metro area has once again taken the lead this year, with Dallas and Austin, TX, following at a great distance. [link]
🤗 “Friends” and “Seinfeld” knew the cure for loneliness - from Eliza Relman
The characters of the biggest shows of the '90s — "Friends," "Seinfeld," "Cheers" — spent the overwhelming majority of their time hanging out at the café, diner, and bar, and work was either an afterthought or a running joke. In today's biggest shows — "Succession," "Superstore," "Industry" — work is all-consuming, and life beyond it is an afterthought. [link]
👋🏼 Parting Thought
This was soooo me as a kid! 😂
If you have any cool articles or ideas that might be interesting for future Sunday Drive-by's, please send them along or tweet 'em at me.
Please note that the content in The Sunday Drive is intended for informational purposes only, and is in no way intended to be financial, legal, tax, marital, or even cooking advice. Consult your own professionals as needed.
I hope you have a relaxing weekend and a great week ahead. See you next Sunday...
Your faithful financial provocateur,
-Mike
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