The Sunday Drive - 02/19/2023 Edition
The Sunday Drive - 02/19/2023 Edition
šš» Hello friends,
Let's take it easy and enjoy our leisurely Sunday Drive around the internet. Ā
Vibin'
The Vibe of the Week is a reminder of how much a part of my life the great guitar bands of the 1970ās were. The level of musicianship was amazing and inspiring. Kansas was always one of my favorites.
This week, Iām vibinā to Carry On Wayward Son, from their 1976 album, Leftoverture. Itās a classic song that means many things to many people. For me, it is a reminder of the importance of hard work, humility and life long learning.
Though my eyes could see, I still was a blind man
Though my mind could think, I still was a mad man
I hear the voices when Iām dreaming
I can hear them sayā¦
Carry on, my wayward son
š” Ā Quote of the Weekā
āThe race is not always to the swift nor the battle to the strong,
but thatās the way to bet.ā - Damon Runyon
š Ā Charts of the Week
The Federal Reserve Bank is ostensibly āfighting inflationā by raising interest rates. In reality, the battle is actually more about managing the publicās inflation expectations. It is those expectations that drive peopleās behavior which sows the seeds of future inflation. If the Chart of the Week is to be believed, the Fed has made good headway in driving down the inflation expectations of the U.S. consumer.
I do remain quite skeptical of the Fedās ability to get inflation down to their stated target of 2%. There are significant demographic shifts and structural changes to the workforce that are ongoing. As a result, I think that a 3% rate of inflation is something that we can and will have to live with for quite some time.
Butā¦
The above chart shows every inflationary cycle in the U.S. since 1942. The red line shows the current cycle. Any guesses where weāre headed? Just sayināā¦
The back side of inflation cycles have typically been very good times to be invested in stocks. š
Interesting Drive-By's
š¤ Ā Why the Tech Pessimists are Wrong - There are two Black Mirror episodes one might think about when you think of artificial intelligenceāor, more specifically, artificial human consciousness. One takes a more pessimistic lens (as is characteristic with Black Mirror) and one leans more optimistic.
š The āBerkshire Systemā: Life Advice from a Shareholder Letter - Warren Buffettās track record at Berkshire has been so remarkable that even Buffett himself, if he were young again, couldnāt repeat it. At least thatās what Charlie Munger believes.
š” Good Ideas Canāt Be Scheduled - Good ideas are sporadic. They canāt be scheduled. Thatās true whether weāre talking about good investing ideas or good marketing ideas or good product ideas. Remembering that you care about your deadline but the rest of the world doesnāt even know about it is an important part of setting expectations.
š¤ ChatGPT is a Blurry JPEG of the Web - Think of ChatGPT as a blurry JPEG of all the text on the Web. It retains much of the information on the Web, in the same way that a JPEG retains much of the information of a higher-resolution image, but, if you're looking for an exact sequence of bits, you won't find it; all you will ever get is an approximation. But, because the approximation is presented in the form of grammatical text, which ChatGPT excels at creating, it's usually acceptable. You're still looking at a blurry JPEG, but the blurriness occurs in a way that doesn't make the picture as a whole look less sharp.
š³ Ā Vishing with Synthetic Voice - Raise your hand if you havenāt received the phone call to extend your carās warranty or if the IRS wants you to buy gift cards before you talk to a magistrate. Vishing social engineering phone calls are on the rise and show increasing velocity.
If you have any cool articles or ideas that might be interesting for future Sunday Drive-by's, please send them along or tweet 'em at me.
āI hope you have a relaxing weekend and a great week ahead. See you next Sunday...
Your faithful financial provocateur,
-Mikeā
If you enjoy the Sunday Drive, I'd be honored if you'd share it with others.āā
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